Heading toward the first full weekend of January 2017, a strong winter storm was forecast to develop and eventually impact much of the eastern United States. This storm could impact millions of people and bring a significant amount of snow, ice and cold to places that rarely receive these types of wx. This was a BIG DEAL, and hundreds, potentially thousands, of mets across the country treated this as such, warning the public of the threat. And every met, and his or her mother, were watching the models to see where the storm would go.

This was no easy storm to forecast. Initial wx models took the storm farther north, meaning the impacts would be farther north. Then, as the event got closer, wx models took the storm farther south, meaning wx impacts would be farther south. Typically wx models and forecaster have greater accuracy as the wx event gets closer, and with the shifting of the models with just a few days to go, this led many mets to have greater confidence that storm would actually bring significant snow and cold farther south. For instance, there were freezing rain advisories as far south as the suburbs of Mobile, AL. This meant that stations all across the east coast and Southeast were taking this storm seriously.

WSB-TV in Atlanta, GA featured 25 reporters all across the region covering the storm. This is pretty extreme but it shows how significant the threat of a rare winter storm is for the region.

Unfortunately, the storm’s path in the end took a more northerly track, bringing less than the expected amounts of snow to areas in the Southeast and more snow to areas of the Northeast. For North Carolina, from Raleigh south and east, more sleet than anything else fell, and this “busted” forecast for Raleigh, as observed by many viewers and residents of the area, UPSET a lot of folks. And they didn’t hold back.

Here are some of the comment from WRAL’s online webpage used to provide updates on the storm:

Fortunately, one person did come to the defense of the WRAL weather team:

And the WRAL Chief met Greg Fischel defended himself, and his wx team, saying on twitter after the storm,

“To all my detractors, more than 24 hours ago I began talking about how this snow event could go up in smoke. I try to be honest-all I can do.” -@gbfischel

And while I didn’t watch the news in Raleigh, I do believe that he, and others, did warn people of the potentials with this storm. Greg Fischel is an excellent met, and the good ones know to communicate the uncertainty with any storm, especially the major ones. With that being said, a challenge does comes with effectively reaching and communicating forecast changes to viewers.

When there are graphics like this (sent to me by a friend in living in the Raleigh area), from another media outlet:

Snow accumulation forecast from Time Warner Cable News in North Carolina ahead of the storm.

I think it would be hard for any viewer to get this graphic out their head.

In my professional career, I have gotten a few comments about “busted” forecasts, but it comes with the territory as a met. Mets know this. With any big event, or with any forecast, you won’t please everyone, but you have a clear conscience when you know you have done your best and communicated the uncertainties with the wx.

As the one commenter said, “wx forecasting is not an exact science.”

For me, its a science and an art.